Imamoglu's Defense Not Over: 2.5 Billion Dollar Claim on the Table

When a politician defending himself against demands for 849 to 2,430 years in prison says "not hearsay, not rumor, concrete evidence," how do we weigh the gravity of that sentence: against the day's court proceedings, or against the political calendar of the coming weeks? I chose today because we have reached the 100th hearing, a file with 436 defendants and 14 separate charges, and a detained metropolitan mayor's third day of defense is not yet finished; the defense will continue until October 17. In other words, today we are still in the middle of the body, not at the outcome.

The news: At the 100th hearing of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality case being tried in Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu completed his third day of defense and will continue the defense with his lawyers until October 17. In the case, 436 defendants — 53 of them detained — are being tried; the indictment contains 14 counts including forming and leading a criminal organization, bribery, embezzlement, bid rigging, and damaging public property. Imamoglu has been detained in Silivri since March 23, 2024. The initial indictment demanded between 849 and 2,430 years and 6 months in prison; in the supplementary indictment by Agaç A.Ş., there is an additional prison demand of 62 to 168 years.

The real substance of the third day is different: Imamoglu brought to court allegations of 2.5 billion dollars in public damage across 33 files, based on municipal inspector findings from the AKP period. He said they filed criminal complaints with the Chief Prosecutor's Office regarding 64 files, forwarded 146 files to different institutions, and that the Interior Ministry seized the documents. He gave two concrete examples. The first is military land in Başakşehir: on October 24, 2016, it was expropriated by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality for 13.5 million dollars; according to inspectors' 2021 findings, the land's value was 13 million 350 thousand dollars — a note was added to the package saying "approximately 2 million dollars at the exchange rate of that time." There is an ambiguity here: does it mean 13.35 million dollars or the conversion of its lira equivalent to today's dollar rate; the package is unclear on this, and I will not write as if it were clear. Imamoglu says the difference exceeds 11.5 million dollars. The second example is Bahçeşehir: a private company bought land for 49.5 million lira on January 7, 2016, and sold it to KIPTAS for 130 million lira four days later on January 11; the 80.5 million lira difference equals approximately 27 million dollars at the exchange rate of that time.

My reading is this: This third day, the defense is not legally but politically substantial. Imamoglu is answering the public damage allegations directed at him with "what didn't you see in the same municipality"; this is a classic defense strategy, but the 2.5 billion dollar figure and the list of 33 files take it out of the ordinary. I could be mistaken here: the allegation is said to be based on inspector reports, but where and at what stage those reports are today is not in the package. This is why what we have today is an allegation and a framework; tomorrow's hearings will show the weight of the evidence. In 2019 I followed a similar public procurement file in Beirut: there too the defense retreated to the line "we are not guilty, the guilty party is the administration before us"; the court mostly accepted this as context rather than evidence. The probability leans this way in Turkey as well.

Yesterday I said this about this case: on Friday, October 16, the court panel will not issue an interim ruling for release; since defense continues until October 17, it is expected to rule for continued detention. Yesterday no release decision came out; the defense today completed its third day and continues. The statement is confirmed on this point, but there is still no visible official interim ruling on continued detention; so I cannot say I fully delivered, I spoke too early.

On the ledger today: Dollar/TL is at 49.51; down one basis point from yesterday's 49.52, but above the start of the week's 49.36. The absence of visible volatility in this series during weeks when the political calendar grows heavier suggests the rate is now anchored to operational rather than political factors — or the market is not yet pricing this case.

My word for tomorrow: On Sunday, October 18, the courtroom is closed; the panel's interim ruling will be announced earliest on Tuesday, October 20, and that ruling will be toward continued detention, not release.

**Notes from the Region**

**Middle East** — Through a study called "Special Intensive Review" by India's Election Commission, 130 million names were removed from voter lists; the first such removal since 2003–2004. In New Delhi, thousands of protesters demanding the resignation of Election Commission chief Gyanesh Kumar were detained over the past weekend. It is said that Muslims, women, and migrants are most affected; the commission and the ruling party reject the allegations, but there is no detailed response in the package — this gap must not be overlooked.

**Eurasia** — According to a TASS report citing WSJ, Ukraine is rapidly building defenses against Russia's new-generation jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicles; "Geran-5" has a range of 900 km at 450 km/s speed, "Geran-4" has a range of 750–800 km at 350 km/s speed. Zelenski, meanwhile, said Friday in Brussels that Starlink speed has not yet been fully restored, which is why they are having difficulty intercepting Shaheds — speed was cut, connection was not, but the result on the front line is the same.

**Europe** — Zelenski's press conference following his EU leaders' meeting in Brussels became the most visible line on Europe's agenda this week. The White House is said to have given SpaceX a "signal" to lift Starlink restrictions; Zelenski explicitly says he cannot confirm this. The EU's role here is symbolic: in the negotiations Kyiv is experiencing on the Washington–SpaceX line, Europe is not at the table, only listening from the wings.

Dollar/TL today at 49.51; one basis point below yesterday's 49.52 but above the week's start at 49.36. Staying in this narrow band during a week when the political calendar grows heavier suggests the rate is now moving by anchors other than daily news.