Four EAEU Countries Prepare Report on Possible Suspension of Armenia's Membership

On October 20, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan submitted a joint report to the Eurasian Economic Commission assessing the consequences of a possible suspension of the EAEU Treaty with respect to Armenia. The document was addressed to the heads of state of the Union.

The trigger was Yerevan's course toward European integration: in March 2025, the Armenian parliament passed a law initiating the process of EU accession while maintaining EAEU membership. The report's authors consider the simultaneous application of two integration regimes incompatible — primarily in the spheres of customs regulation, foreign trade, and technical product requirements.

According to scenario calculations in the report, Armenia's trade with EAEU partners could decline from $7.99 billion to $3.55 billion. Armenia risks losing 15.6% of its GDP. Armenian labor migrants in Russia and other Union countries may require work permits — if existing EAEU guarantees cease to apply to them.

For Kyrgyzstan, the authors forecast a decline in exports by $0.5 million and imports by $3.7 million. According to the National Statistical Committee, in 2025 mutual trade between Kyrgyzstan and Armenia totaled $7.7 million — against the backdrop of total commodity turnover with EAEU countries of $6.79 billion.

Notably, on October 17 — three days before the report was submitted — Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov held talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan, discussing expanded trade and transport routes.

On October 21, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced that Yerevan is reviewing the presented report.