European natural gas hits 4-year peak: TTF reaches 101 euros

November futures contracts on the Dutch-based TTF, the reference price for Europe's natural gas market, approached 101 euros per megawatt-hour intraday — the highest level seen since December 2022, according to Anadolu Agency.

Two factors stand out behind the price climb from below 70 euros in early September: shipments from Qatar, which supplies roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, have fallen to one-quarter of pre-war levels due to the effective blockade in the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, Asian buyers including China are purchasing from the spot market at high prices to guard against potential supply disruptions.

Analysts noted that as LNG cargoes are diverted to Asia rather than Europe, the continent has been forced to raise prices to maintain its competitive position. The lack of progress toward opening the Strait of Hormuz is also weakening supply expectations for the winter season; storage facilities have not yet reached full capacity.

Given expectations of below-seasonal temperatures in early November and low wind speeds forecast, analysts predict that in an extreme cold scenario prices could rise to 130 euros per megawatt-hour by early next year. Among the warnings was the possibility that if prices permanently breach 100 euros, government interventions to curb demand could come into play.