Lula wins Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.7%, securing unprecedented fourth term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.7% of the vote against Jair Bolsonaro's 48.2%, securing a fourth presidential term that political scientists and economists say will be dominated by fiscal pressure and a hostile Congress.

Bolsonaro's Liberal Party emerged from the legislative elections earlier this month as the leading congressional force, holding 121 of 513 seats in the lower house and 28 of 81 Senate seats. Without a majority, Lula will depend on the centrist Centrão bloc, whose negotiating power has grown as lawmakers now control an increasing share of the federal budget, according to political scientist Mayra Goulart of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.

The fiscal outlook is acute. Brazil's public debt exceeds 80% of GDP, and economist Mauro Rochlin of the Getulio Vargas Foundation told AFP that fiscal imbalance represented the country's overriding structural problem — one that could rapidly become an economic crisis if unaddressed. Adjustment will collide with Lula's welfare programmes, which he expanded during the campaign.

Security was a dominant campaign theme. Lula said during the campaign he would support lowering the criminal responsibility age from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes; the political right wants a reduction to 14.

Lula also campaigned on protecting Brazilian sovereignty as US interventionism across Latin America grows. Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil last year over legal proceedings against his ally Jair Bolsonaro — who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup — followed by an additional 25% tariff.