Moscow sets maximalist terms for talks, seeks NATO pullback to pre-enlargement levels

Russian foreign policy analysts have laid out expansive objectives for prospective trilateral talks with US and Ukrainian envoys in Abu Dhabi, targeting a wholesale revision of European security arrangements that would exclude European governments from the initial negotiations.

Valdai Club analyst Stanislav Tkachenko has called openly for a return to Russia's December 2021 demands: limiting NATO's military presence to pre-enlargement levels, removing bases and military facilities from the Baltic states and Eastern Europe, and halting further enlargement. Tkachenko also named the lifting of sanctions, the return of frozen assets, and the formal recognition of Russian territorial seizures — and went further, suggesting new claims on Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv on the basis of what he described as Putin's references to "historical territories."

Dmitri Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council, said a frontline freeze does not suit Moscow, but that talks with Washington are worth pursuing because they are already producing results. He predicted fighting could continue into 2027, with final agreement terms tied to battlefield outcomes.

Vladimir Putin stated on 22 October that future negotiations should determine guarantees for Russia as well as broader European security rules, and said it was US envoy Steve Witkoff who proposed widening the agenda. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that initial Abu Dhabi talks would involve representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the United States, acknowledging that European countries could not be excluded indefinitely — but conditioning their participation on their conduct.

Separately, analyst Fyodor Lukyanov suggested that Kyiv might walk away from agreements already reached, with European backing, framing this as a reason why new US proposals may again lead nowhere.