Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Closed: Why Diesel Prices Won't Fall Despite Trump-Putin Deal

Prospects for a decline in global diesel prices in the near term remain slim, despite the recent supply agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — this is the conclusion reached by experts cited in an economic analysis published Wednesday.

Samina Sultan, a trade expert at the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne, identified the core reason: "Rising diesel prices stem from the war in Yemen and the simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab." She added that this situation leads to production losses and makes fuel transport "more expensive, less safe, and far more difficult".

According to data from Kpler, a company specializing in maritime shipping analysis, tankers carrying roughly 13.5 million barrels per day transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Sultan pointed out that the Trump agreement carries a multiplied geopolitical dimension that compounds the picture: "This leads to a complete entanglement between the war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East."

The analysis concluded that the Russian-American agreement does not address the structural bottleneck represented by weak refining capacity; the war reduces refinery operating rates, shrinking supply independent of the volume of contracts signed.