EAEU Prepared Report on Consequences of Armenia's Membership Suspension

Members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan presented a report on possible consequences of suspending Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, TASS reported citing Russia's government press service.

The report's authors conclude that Yerevan's steps toward joining the European Union contradict its obligations to the EAEU. According to the assessment of the four countries, Armenia is not informing the Eurasian Economic Commission about aligning its legislation with EU standards. The introduction of "European standards" in the customs sphere, the report states, will jeopardize the unity of the union's customs space.

In the event of Armenia's membership suspension, the report's authors forecast a 15.6% decline in the country's GDP, inflation growth of 14.9 percentage points, and a 14.6% reduction in consumption. The price of natural gas for Armenia could rise by 69% — from $177.5 to $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, though the document notes that the actual price could be even higher. Armenian goods exports will contract by 30-50%, supplies from the EAEU to Armenia will fall by half, and aggregate trade turnover between Armenia and the union will decrease by 55.6%. Working conditions for Armenian citizens seeking labor migration will also become more restrictive.

At the same time, the four states assert they have no interest in Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU and point to their right to consider suspending its participation in the union — before Armenia holds a referendum on choosing between the EAEU and the EU.