Fitch: US Federal Deficit Reached $2 Trillion in 2026 and Will Rise After Elections

Fitch Ratings has warned that fiscal pressures on the United States will continue regardless of the outcome of the upcoming congressional elections, emphasizing that "structural factors affecting US credit indicators will remain in place no matter the election results."

Fitch clarified that the federal budget deficit could reach approximately $2 trillion in fiscal year 2026, equivalent to 6.1% of gross domestic product. The agency expects the ratio of general government deficit to rise to 7.5% of GDP in 2026 and then to 7.6% in 2027, the highest ratio among countries rated in the "AA" category.

According to Fitch, debt subject to the borrowing cap currently stands at $40.93 trillion as of October 26 data, falling short of the maximum limit by $773 billion. The agency indicates that debt could reach its ceiling in the first quarter of 2027.

Should control of one or both chambers of Congress shift to the Democrats, Fitch warns of the possibility of escalating budget negotiation difficulties and increased risk of government shutdown. The current continuing resolution expires on December 11.

Regarding public debt, Fitch sees debt potentially reaching 123% of GDP by the end of 2028 and then 129% by 2030 if current policies continue.