Iran war to add at least $39bn to global LNG bill in 2026, Rystad Energy estimates

Disruption to Qatari and UAE liquefied natural gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz will cost global LNG importers at least $39 billion more in 2026 despite them purchasing 60.7 million tonnes less, according to modelling by Rystad Energy.

Rystad's scenario assumes Qatari and UAE deliveries remain unavailable from March through the end of 2026. Under those conditions, total global LNG portfolio costs rise from $217.8 billion to at least $256.3 billion — an increase of roughly 18 percent.

Europe bears the steepest regional hit, with its LNG bill rising by a minimum of $12 billion, or 18 percent, even as demand falls by 24 million tonnes. Europe is set to lose 20.6 million tonnes of the 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari LNG scheduled for delivery in 2026 before the conflict began. Having entered the crisis already reliant on spot purchases, Europe has limited scope to increase that share further; Rystad projects its spot import share will rise by just 5.49 percent after accounting for demand destruction.

East Asia faces the smallest relative cost increase among regions outside the Middle East, at 9.7 percent, helped by a broader portfolio of supply contracts outside the Gulf and lower LNG demand overall, with spot purchases accounting for just 14.5 percent of its imports. South Asia is adjusting mainly through reduced volumes, with Pakistan cutting purchases more sharply than India.

Rystad said the crisis "exposes a fundamental weakness in gas security", noting that diversifying pricing benchmarks can help manage costs but does not guarantee physical supply.