Serbian Opposition Wins 52.73% and Rejects Sanctions on Russia

Serbia's Student List has secured parliamentary elections with 52.73% of votes, surpassing the coalition of former President Aleksandar Vučić in a ballot that came after roughly two years of sustained public protests against the government.

Vučić acknowledged his defeat while warning that the new administration may face pressure from the European Union and implement sanctions on Russia within months. However, the winners quickly denied this; Jovo Bakić, a university professor and representative of the Student List, told RT Balkan that Serbia will maintain its historical ties with Russia, saying: "We respect Russia as a great power and a historical partner, and often a protector of ours," adding: "There will be no change in this regard."

Bakić rejected joining Western sanctions imposed on Moscow, invoking the strict UN sanctions that were imposed on Yugoslavia in the 1990s, and stressed that any Serbian sanctions on Russia would have only limited effect on Moscow, while causing highly negative symbolic repercussions for Serbia. Serbia had also rejected under Vučić's tenure joining sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, despite seeking European Union membership.

On the weapons front, Reuters reported that leaders of the winning movement announced that the new government will halt weapons exports to conflict zones, a step that includes ending sales deals to Western intermediaries who purchase Serbian weapons and ammunition and then reship them to Ukraine. Vučić had previously said that European countries buying Serbian ammunition decide for themselves how to use it, while Belgrade's administration denied any direct weapons supply to Ukraine.

The new government will face the energy file as one of its most prominent challenges; Serbia relies on Russia to secure roughly three-quarters of its natural gas needs. Vučić announced following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in March that Moscow would continue supplying Serbia with gas at prices significantly cheaper than most European countries receive, and a gas supply agreement between the two countries was subsequently extended until the end of 2026. By contrast, the European Union has sought since the escalation of war in Ukraine in 2022 to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels and turn toward alternative energy sources.

On another front, the file of U.S. sanctions imposed on NIS, which operates Serbia's sole oil refinery and in which the Russian side holds the largest stake, presents an additional challenge for Belgrade in the energy sector. It is noted that Hungarian energy company MOL is seeking to acquire the Russian stakes in NIS.