Bulgaria heads to Nov. 1 runoff as pro-Russia Iotova leads with 35–36.5%

Bulgaria's President Iliana Iotova leads Sunday's first round of presidential elections with between 35 and 36.5 percent of the vote, falling short of pre-election survey expectations, exit polls showed. She will face pro-Western challenger Andrey Gyurov, who scored between 32.2 and 32.5 percent, in a November 1 runoff.

Turnout was around 20 percent, according to the polls. The result was closer than forecast, with surveys ahead of the vote predicting a comfortable win for Iotova.

Iotova, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and advocates negotiations with Moscow, took over this year as president of Bulgaria — an EU and NATO member — when President Rumen Radev stepped down to run in parliamentary elections. A win for her would also boost Radev, who has similarly called for dialogue with Moscow.

The vote unfolded against a sharp security backdrop: four vessels were struck off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast this month, leaving 21 people missing, in suspected spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war. While Radev said the attacks appeared to serve Russian interests and summoned the Russian ambassador, his government has said there is so far no evidence directly linking Moscow to them.

Gyurov, a banker and former caretaker prime minister, has sharply criticised Radev's foreign policy and describes himself as a strong supporter of Bulgaria's Euro-Atlantic ties. At his final rally in Plovdiv he called for Bulgaria to be "a reliable ally within NATO."

If Iotova wins the runoff, she would become the first woman ever elected president in the country of 6.4 million people.