De Cos and Knot front-runners to succeed Lagarde at ECB

Spain's Pablo Hernández de Cos and the Netherlands' Klaas Knot have emerged as the leading candidates to replace Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank after she announced her intention to depart in February next year.

A Bloomberg survey of economists gives de Cos a slender advantage: 12 respondents picked him against nine for Knot. The survey reflects expert preference, not a forecast of the outcome — EU leaders will make the appointment, with national claims and other ECB vacancies likely to shape the final negotiations.

De Cos, who holds a PhD from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, joined the Bank of Spain in 1997 and spent time as an ECB executive board adviser in Frankfurt before rising to become Bank of Spain governor from 2018 to 2024. He served two terms as chair of the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision, the global standard-setter for bank regulation, and currently runs the Bank for International Settlements. His economic profile is that of a measured dove who backed higher rates when inflation surged in 2022.

Galo Nuño, vice dean and professor of economics at IE University and a former alternate ECB governing council member, called de Cos's crisis-era experience at the Bank of Spain "a huge advantage" given France's mounting debt pressures.

The political arithmetic could still work against the Spaniard, however. France is keen to secure the role of ECB chief economist, which becomes vacant in May 2027, and some officials may want to avoid pairing the ECB presidency and chief economist posts with candidates from the same political bloc.

Negotiations are expected to be shaped by a broader package deal, as two executive board seats fall vacant in January and May alongside the presidency itself.