CHP Majority in Istanbul Municipal Council Hinges on 10 Members: What Do the Numbers Show?

The distribution of seats in Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Council continues to shift against the CHP following the March 19 process. According to current data compiled by Sözcü Gazette, the CHP group's membership has declined from 186 to 157, while the ruling coalition has risen from 130 to 138.

Under the current scenario, if 10 council members from the CHP actually defect to the ruling coalition, the bloc would reach 148 seats and seize the majority. If they remain independent alone, that would not be enough to cross this threshold.

There is one more critical variable in the equation: of the 157 members in the CHP group, 17 consist of members from the DEM Party who were elected on CHP lists under the "City Consensus" framework in the March 31, 2024 local elections. The stance of these figures will be decisive in any potential power shift.

The Istanbul Municipal Council last operated with an AKP majority during the 2019-2024 term; during that period, budget votes were repeatedly blocked by CHP Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu's veto.