Excise tax hike to add 3.60 TL to diesel, 4.15 TL to gasoline in November

Economist Mahmut Aydoğmuş calculated that the Special Consumption Tax change scheduled to take effect on November 1st will translate to a 3.60 TL increase per liter at the diesel pump and a 4.15 TL increase for 95-octane gasoline, according to reporting by Cumhuriyet Newspaper.

According to Aydoğmuş's calculations, the current per-liter excise tax on diesel of 6 TL will rise to 9 TL; with the 20 percent VAT effect, the pump price increase will be 3.60 TL. For 95-octane gasoline, the excise tax will rise from 8.90 TL to 12.36 TL, meaning the increase including VAT will reach approximately 4.15 TL.

The economist emphasized that this tax effect alone may not stand in isolation. Noting that if the Turkish Lira continues to depreciate, the additional cost from exchange rate movements could reach approximately 2.50 TL per liter, Aydoğmuş stated that monthly currency appreciation in October reached 1.75 percent, and current trends suggest it could exceed 1.80 percent. Under this scenario, he forecast the dollar/TL rate could reach 50.71 by the end of November.

Adding that geopolitical tensions in West Asia could escalate again following the November 3rd U.S. midterm elections, necessitating monitoring of the risk of Brent crude rising above 120 dollars, Aydoğmuş stated that if all risks materialize simultaneously, the total pressure on diesel prices could reach 6 TL and on gasoline prices could reach 6.55 TL. He underscored that the increase would affect not only vehicle owners but also transportation, agriculture, and food costs.