TEPAV: Poverty rate rises from 20.6% to 23.2% when imputed rent is excluded from income

Turkey's Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV) has calculated that TÜİK's official poverty figures contain a measurement gap affecting 2.1 million people: according to a report released on the occasion of World Day for the Eradication of Poverty on October 17, when imputed rental income is removed from the income calculation, the official 2025 rate of 20.6% rises to 23.2%.

The core of the problem is this: TÜİK adds a "notional income" equivalent to market rent for households that own their homes or live rent-free. Since this item is not cash, it cannot be used for bread, bills, or transportation; yet in poverty threshold calculations, it places these households above the poverty line rather than counting them as poor. When Eurostat excludes this same item, its calculation yields 23.4% — nearly identical to TEPAV's corrected figure.

The report presents two additional findings that deepen the problem. Households in the lowest income group devote 67.9% of their consumption expenditure to housing and food; 83% of workers with children under 15 lack access to professional childcare services.

Linking the trend directly to the sharp decline in total fertility rate — from 2.19 children in 2014 to 1.42 in 2025 — the report warns that this measurement discrepancy could fundamentally mislead social policy design. TÜİK's methodology was adopted in the 2000s within the framework of European harmonization; since then, as rental increases have far outpaced household income growth, the gap widens each year.