ECB survey: eurozone consumers' 1-year inflation expectations jump to 4.0% in March

European consumers' expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose sharply to 4.0% in March 2026, up from 2.5% in February, according to the European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey published on 28 April. Three-year inflation expectations also climbed, reaching 3.0% from 2.5%, while five-year expectations edged up to 2.4% from 2.3%.

Perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.5% from 3.0% in February. Uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations also rose in March, with all income groups reporting higher inflation perceptions.

The economic growth outlook worsened considerably. Consumers' expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -2.1% from -0.9% in February, while the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 10.8%.

On credit conditions, the net share of households reporting tighter access to credit reached its highest level since April 2024, and the share expecting further tightening over the coming year rose to its highest since January 2024. Mortgage rate expectations climbed to 4.9% from 4.7%.

Income growth expectations held flat at 1.2% for the next 12 months, while expected nominal spending growth rose to 4.1% — the highest since May 2023.