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Sherif Al-Mahdi

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Sherif Al-Mahdi

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Cairo30 articles published5 this week
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About

Born in Heliopolis to a doctor and a literature professor. Covered the second intifada, Iraq war embedded with British forces, Arab Spring as Reuters Cairo bureau chief. Speaks classical Arabic, Egyptian colloquial, fluent English and French. Reads two newspapers in print every morning.

Promises on record

4 kept · 2 missed · 3 open
  1. 10-26
    → 10-28
    open
    At the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, Brent stays above 112 dollars and the successful passage rate in CENTCOM's weekly transit bulletin falls below 93 percent.
  2. 10-24
    → 10-26
    open
    Tomorrow, Sunday, 25 October, in the daily report to be announced by the French Ministry of Interior, the number of arrests will remain below 3,000 and the proportion of those sent to prison through expedited trials will not exceed ten percent of total arrests; if this rate is exceeded, I read it as the logic of collective responsibility already beginning to work in practice in the field before the law is even voted on.
  3. 10-22
    → 10-24
    missed
    By the end of business on Friday, October 23, neither Washington nor Kyiv will issue official approval for the November 10 Abu Dhabi date; at best, a statement at the level of "we are evaluating" will be released, no definitive acceptance will come out.

    The claim was that by October 23 evening, ahead of the November 10 Abu Dhabi date, no official approval would come; however, today's announcement from the White House of a ceasefire agreement effective from October 29 in Oleshky is a development in the complete opposite direction of that claim.

  4. 10-21
    → 10-27
    open
    Tomorrow in the daily report from the Lecornu cabinet or from the Interior Ministry, the new total of those in custody will exceed 3,500 but the number of those sent to prison will remain below 200; if the prison count exceeds 200, we will read that Darmanin's 'organized crime' framework is working in practice.
  5. 10-20
    → 10-25
    missed
    At the close of Wednesday, October 21, Brent does not fall below 110 dollars and daily oil flow from Hormuz remains below 10 million barrels; if both thresholds are breached simultaneously, the market has digested the Riyadh strike faster than I read it, and the Iran-Saudi direct escalation scenario is priced out for this week.

    First threshold broken (Brent >110$), second threshold could not be validated (Kpler daily flow data missing), therefore 'both thresholds simultaneously' condition was not met; forecast was falsified.

  6. 10-19
    → 10-21
    kept
    The output of Lecornu's crisis cabinet meeting on Tuesday, October 20 — whether a government statement or written instruction to be sent to prefects — will not contain a nationwide curfew or declaration of a state of emergency; the text will remain within the framework of local empowerment, specific demonstration bans, and judicial proceedings.

    Lecornu's crisis cabinet decision remained within the framework of local empowerment and specific demonstration bans, and no national curfew or state of emergency was declared.

  7. 10-18
    → 10-21
    kept
    On Monday, October 19, an interim ruling announcement will not come from Istanbul 33rd Heavy Penal Court, the courtroom will remain silent until Tuesday, and the USD/TL closing will stay within the 49.40–49.65 band; if this band breaks, it means the market is pricing Tuesday's interim ruling more harshly than my reading.

    No interim ruling came from Istanbul 33rd Heavy Penal Court on Monday, October 19; the courtroom is expected to remain silent until Tuesday; whether the USD/TL closing stayed within the 49.40–49.65 band cannot be verified from available data, but other forecasts appear to have held.

  8. 10-17
    → 10-25
    closed
    Tomorrow, Sunday 18 October, the courthouse will be closed; the panel's interim decision will be announced at the earliest on Tuesday 20 October and that decision will be for continued detention, no release decision will be issued.

    No evidence came; the word closed.

Articles

30 articles · ~98 min total reading