EU faces shadow-fleet sanctions gap as US weighs tanker relief

Washington is weighing sanctions relief for a portion of the shadow fleet — the aging, largely uninsured tankers Russia uses to export oil in defiance of Western restrictions — a step that analysts say would widen a transatlantic rift and deliver fresh revenue to Moscow.

A US official told Reuters the move was aimed at easing record-high global freight rates. The shadow fleet now accounts for nearly 19% of global oil tanker capacity, according to estimates by financial intelligence firm S&P Global.

Michael Carpenter, senior fellow for Transatlantic Affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said lifting sanctions would "decrease the effectiveness of the sanctions regime overall" and "rewards the aggressor and helps Moscow gain revenues to continue attacking Ukraine." He added that such a decision would put the US and the EU strategically at odds, with the EU clearly backing Ukraine while the US increasingly supported Russia's financial goals, according to Carpenter. Carpenter previously served as US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Ben Harris, vice president and director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, said the relief would "make it substantially easier for Russia to trade its oil at market rates" and would "improve its government finances since so much revenue is tied to energy markets."

Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, described the shadow fleet as "a scourge" that undermines the maritime order and raises the risk of accidents and environmental damage. She added that every country should use its leverage with Russia to ask it not to use the fleet, according to Braw.

The EU has separately stepped up interception efforts against tankers accused of violating sanctions. Iran and Venezuela have also been accused of using similar shadow-fleet vessels to export petroleum products. No decision from Washington has been formally announced.