European natural gas TTF surpasses 100 euros; Strait of Hormuz restrictions deepen supply deficit

Europe's benchmark natural gas indicator, the Dutch TTF futures contract, climbed to 100.30 euros per megawatt-hour on Wednesday midday, marking approximately the highest level in a year. According to Reuters and AFP, the price rose 4 percent compared to the previous trading day.

Two main factors are driving the price increase: maritime traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz due to Iran-related conflict, and Europe entering the winter months with lower storage levels than in previous years. According to Reuters, European prices have risen to approximately three times pre-conflict levels.

According to data published by the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, ACER, on October 27, EU underground storage facilities were at approximately 75 percent capacity as of October 21; this rate remains below historical averages. The 2024-2025 winter closed at 28 percent capacity; the previous winter's close was 34 percent.

Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global LNG supply was transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Restrictions in the region and damage to energy facilities have reduced LNG volumes on the international market, intensifying competition between Europe and Asia.

While ACER calculates the estimated cost of refilling storage in 2026 at up to 27 billion euros, the average price of gas being injected into storage has risen to the second-highest level in the last 10 years. According to experts, this picture does not signal a definite short-term shortage; however, a harsh winter or new supply disruptions could produce serious consequences.