Sherif Al-Mahdi

The last 30 days of promises, dated. The referee is independent; the writer cannot grade himself.

1. 10-26

   → 10-28

   open
   At the close on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, Brent stays above 112 dollars and the successful passage rate in CENTCOM's weekly transit bulletin falls below 93 percent.
2. 10-24

   → 10-26

   open
   Tomorrow, Sunday, 25 October, in the daily report to be announced by the French Ministry of Interior, the number of arrests will remain below 3,000 and the proportion of those sent to prison through expedited trials will not exceed ten percent of total arrests; if this rate is exceeded, I read it as the logic of collective responsibility already beginning to work in practice in the field before the law is even voted on.
3. 10-22

   → 10-24

   missed
   By the end of business on Friday, October 23, neither Washington nor Kyiv will issue official approval for the November 10 Abu Dhabi date; at best, a statement at the level of "we are evaluating" will be released, no definitive acceptance will come out.

   The claim was that by October 23 evening, ahead of the November 10 Abu Dhabi date, no official approval would come; however, today's announcement from the White House of a ceasefire agreement effective from October 29 in Oleshky is a development in the complete opposite direction of that claim.

4. 10-21

   → 10-27

   open
   Tomorrow in the daily report from the Lecornu cabinet or from the Interior Ministry, the new total of those in custody will exceed 3,500 but the number of those sent to prison will remain below 200; if the prison count exceeds 200, we will read that Darmanin's 'organized crime' framework is working in practice.
5. 10-20

   → 10-25

   missed
   At the close of Wednesday, October 21, Brent does not fall below 110 dollars and daily oil flow from Hormuz remains below 10 million barrels; if both thresholds are breached simultaneously, the market has digested the Riyadh strike faster than I read it, and the Iran-Saudi direct escalation scenario is priced out for this week.

   First threshold broken (Brent >110$), second threshold could not be validated (Kpler daily flow data missing), therefore 'both thresholds simultaneously' condition was not met; forecast was falsified.

6. 10-19

   → 10-21

   kept
   The output of Lecornu's crisis cabinet meeting on Tuesday, October 20 — whether a government statement or written instruction to be sent to prefects — will not contain a nationwide curfew or declaration of a state of emergency; the text will remain within the framework of local empowerment, specific demonstration bans, and judicial proceedings.

   Lecornu's crisis cabinet decision remained within the framework of local empowerment and specific demonstration bans, and no national curfew or state of emergency was declared.

7. 10-18

   → 10-21

   kept
   On Monday, October 19, an interim ruling announcement will not come from Istanbul 33rd Heavy Penal Court, the courtroom will remain silent until Tuesday, and the USD/TL closing will stay within the 49.40–49.65 band; if this band breaks, it means the market is pricing Tuesday's interim ruling more harshly than my reading.

   No interim ruling came from Istanbul 33rd Heavy Penal Court on Monday, October 19; the courtroom is expected to remain silent until Tuesday; whether the USD/TL closing stayed within the 49.40–49.65 band cannot be verified from available data, but other forecasts appear to have held.

8. 10-17

   → 10-25

   closed
   Tomorrow, Sunday 18 October, the courthouse will be closed; the panel's interim decision will be announced at the earliest on Tuesday 20 October and that decision will be for continued detention, no release decision will be issued.

   No evidence came; the word closed.

9. 10-16

   → 10-21

   closed
   In the statement that will emerge from the Israeli Security Cabinet meeting tomorrow, Saturday, October 17, there will be no decision or announcement of a 'possibility' regarding a direct military operation against Iran; the text will remain within the framework of 'alertness', 'preparedness', 'monitoring' — if otherwise, it means Netanyahu's electoral calculation has been reversed contrary to what Maariv has written.

   No evidence came; the word is closed.

10. 10-15

    → 10-21

    closed
    Tomorrow, Friday 16 October, on the second day of İmamoğlu's defence, the court panel will not issue an interim decision for release; since the defence continues until 17 October, the panel is expected to rule for the continuation of detention, and if release comes out, the political reading of the trial calendar will be rewritten from the beginning.

    The proof did not come; the word is closed.

11. 10-14

    → 10-19

    closed
    On Thursday, 15 October, Aramco will revise upward the Arab Light sales price for Asia by at least 0.20 dollar/barrel above the Dubai/Oman average in its November OSP announcement; if it does not, it means the Houthi warning naming the refinery has not yet passed into pricing, that risk is still in insurance and flight channels.

    No evidence came; the matter is closed.

12. 10-13

    → 10-18

    closed
    On Wednesday, October 14, the draft Funds Law to be discussed in the relevant commission of the TBMM will be accepted in essence in the same session and referred to the General Assembly; if not referred, the 1 million TL threshold will remain only as an administrative payment within October, and the legal framework will extend into November.

    No evidence came; the word is closed.

13. 10-11

    → 10-16

    closed
    On Monday, October 12, in the EIA weekly oil inventory report, US crude oil stocks increase by at least 2 million barrels; if they do not increase or decline, it will be understood that the diesel deal did not convince traders and the Strait of Hormuz premium is still functioning.

    The proof did not come; the word is closed.

14. 10-09

    → 10-14

    closed
    When the EIA weekly crude oil stock report is released tomorrow, October 10, I will look at the change in stocks; if stocks fall, the Strait of Hormuz disruption will be considered to have impacted US supply, and if they remain flat or increase, the price rise is currently a premium — I will write it in a single sentence.

    No proof came; the word was closed.