Bundeswehr raises Russian sabotage threat to second-highest level after drone finds

Germany's Bundeswehr has classified the threat of Russian sabotage attacks against its own forces on German soil at 'Erheblich' — the second-highest level on its assessment scale — for the first time, according to an internal security analysis obtained by WDR and Süddeutsche Zeitung.

The reassessment follows two drone incidents. In early August, an explosive-laden drone was used in a failed attack at Leipzig/Halle airport. In mid-September, a farmer near the Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony discovered a crashed drone carrying a tin can filled with high-explosive material; technical analysis by the Bundeskriminalamt (BKA) indicated the drone had been lying near the Bundeswehr base for roughly two years. Investigators concluded the Wunstorf drone was most likely intended to target Bundeswehr aircraft, not civilian freight planes as in Leipzig.

The internal document states, with reference to both incidents, that the incidents underscore Russia's "almost certainly possessed capability" and very probable intent to act against Bundeswehr forces and installations, as well as partners such as Ukraine, in Germany. According to the assessment, this capability and intent have developed over some time.

The assessment judges that by deploying drones "as a kinetic means of effect", Russia has "crossed a previously anticipated red line of harmful intent with kinetic and/or lethal effect" toward Germany and the Bundeswehr. It further concludes that the Wunstorf incident, unlike Leipzig, constitutes a "direct targeting" of the Bundeswehr.

Strategically, the Bundeswehr document assesses that Russia "very probably" pursues a "subversion intent" currently focused on the "political and societal weakening of German support for Ukraine", with the operational aim of disrupting all Ukrainian support "in the form of equipment and training".