Two scenarios for January pension increase: 15-20% welfare supplement or flat 5-10 thousand TL

Millions of pensioners face two different options for their January increase. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University faculty member Assoc. Prof. Dr. Okan Güray Bülbül noted that with TURKSTAT's announcement of October inflation at 2.58%, the cumulative inflation for July-October reached 8.29%. According to Bülbül, this rate forms the baseline for the January increase for SSK and Bağ-Kur pensioners.

Calculating that should November and December each see 2% and 1% inflation respectively, SSK and Bağ-Kur pensioners would receive a 12% increase, while active civil servants and retired civil servants would receive a 10% increase, Bülbül stated that "if the 12% increase is applied to the minimum pension amount," the figure would be 26,378 TL. The current minimum pension is 23,552 lira. Reminding that over 5 million pensioners receive payments at this level, Bülbül emphasized that raising the minimum amount requires legal amendment, meaning a law change in Parliament.

Defining two methods for additional improvement, Bülbül said the first option would be adding a percentage-based welfare supplement to the inflation increase: "There is a possibility of raising the estimated 12% figure we calculated to either 15% or 20%." The second option is a flat-rate increase to pension payments; Bülbül gave examples of this figure as "5,000 TL or 10,000 TL." Noting that the flat increase would be more advantageous for low-income pensioners compared to percentage-based increases, Bülbül projected that which formula would be implemented would become clear by mid-December.

Bülbül also conveyed that President Erdoğan's 2027 promise of additional improvement, along with statements by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek that sufficient budget allocation has been set aside for this item, reinforced expectations for an additional increase. He added that collective bargaining agreement provisions apply to retired civil servants, and current data show a 6.26% increase for this group.