Without the sliding-scale system, diesel would have seen a 74.8% hike; gasoline fell 4.30 TL

Former Central Bank Chief Economist Prof. Dr. Ali Hakan Kara shared a chart compiled from CBRT data on his social media account, demonstrating the extent to which the sliding-scale system has limited price pressure on fuel products.

According to the data, diesel prices rose 56.1 percent and gasoline prices rose 39 percent during the March-September 2026 period. Had the system not been implemented, the diesel increase would have reached 74.8 percent and the gasoline increase would have hit 57 percent.

The sliding-scale application, launched in March 2026 citing war risks in the Middle East and rising oil prices, also impacted the budget. According to budget data presented to parliament, 662.1 billion lira in excise tax revenue from oil and natural gas was targeted for 2026, while actual collection is expected to reach 321.2 billion lira due to tax subsidies. The excise tax forgone due to the system amounted to 205.8 billion lira, and with the 20 percent value-added tax effect on excise taxes, total tax forgiveness reached 247 billion lira; this figure corresponds to a 39 percent decline in excise tax revenues from oil and natural gas compared to the previous year. Should normalization occur in international markets, excise tax revenue from oil and gas is projected to rise to 870.6 billion lira with a 171 percent increase in 2027.

Brent crude's decline to $104 was reflected as a 4.30 TL discount on gasoline starting Tuesday, October 20. Gasoline prices in Istanbul fell below 80 TL while Ankara and Izmir retreated to the 80 TL level. No changes were made to diesel and LPG prices.