New Party leads in three separate polls, AKP comes second

Three independent studies published in July 2026 point to a marked shift in Turkey's electoral landscape: Metropoll's 'Turkey's Pulse' survey conducted with 1,236 participants, Gündemar's field research across 60 provinces with 2,300 participants, and the Arayüz Campaign survey covering 1,255 voters aged 18-30 all show Özgür Özel's New Party in first place and the AKP in second.

Metropoll's field work was completed between July 18-23; the New Party's official establishment took place while the field research was ongoing. These results, compiled by Bianet, paint a consistent picture despite differences in research methodologies and sample structures.

The New Party has not yet faced its first electoral test; current polls also carry the effect of establishment momentum. On the other hand, the Arayüz data from the 18-30 age group showing an even wider gap between the AKP and the New Party also highlights a generational voter divide.